Oct 02, 2025.
If you’ve been following the headlines, you’ve probably heard the Bank of Canada cut rates again in September. But if you’re wondering whether this really changes the affordability picture for Canadian homebuyers… the short answer is: not much.
I’ve just finished reviewing the Edge Report from Edge Realty Analytics, and I want to share a few key takeaways that I think matter most for buyers, sellers, and homeowners right now.
Rates: A Small Cut, But Confidence Matters More
The BoC’s September cut lowered variable rates by about 0.17%. Sounds good, right? But here’s the reality: fixed mortgages were already slightly lower than variable before the cut, so the net effect for borrowers was only about a 0.04% improvement.
In other words, it’s a drop in the bucket. Affordability hasn’t really shifted. What’s holding buyers back now isn’t just rates—it’s confidence. The report points out that in late 2021, affordability was just as tough as it is today, yet home sales were 46% higher.
Sales Are Picking Up
The positive news? Sales are trending upward. Nationally, home sales in August were up 5.7% year-over-year. In Ontario, sales have climbed almost 30% since the March low.
That’s a sign we may have already seen the bottom of this cycle.
Supply: A Tale of Two Markets
Inventory is a key piece of the puzzle. Across Canada, new listings rose by over 8% year-over-year in August—the second highest August on record. But in Ontario, active listings actually fell by nearly 2%.
That tightening supply could put pressure on prices in some regions, even as buyers remain cautious.
Prices: Holding Flat
After months of declines, national home prices are basically flat. August saw a 0.1% drop after adjusting for seasonality.
It’s not a rebound yet, but it does suggest the freefall is over. With further rate cuts likely into 2026, prices could stabilize further.
Population Shifts: Why Alberta Stands Out
The report also highlights an important shift in demand. Population growth is slowing sharply in Ontario and BC, largely due to fewer non-permanent residents. But Alberta continues to attract people from across Canada.
Combine that with lower housing costs, younger demographics, and strong job inflows, and it’s no surprise that Edge remains bullish on Alberta’s housing market over the long term.
What This Means for You
So where does this leave you if you’re looking at buying, renewing, or refinancing?
Don’t wait for affordability to “magically” improve. Even with more cuts, rates aren’t going back to the ultra-low levels of 2021.
Watch your local market closely. National numbers are helpful, but inventory and demand vary a lot by region.
If you’re renewing in the next year, plan early. The report notes that we’re in the middle of the “great renewal wave” of 2025–2026—meaning many households are facing higher payments.
The good news: there are strategies to soften the impact, whether it’s blending terms, switching products, or timing your renewal carefully.
Final Thought
The market is slowly finding its footing. Sales are creeping higher, inventory is tightening in places, and prices are stabilizing. Confidence—more than affordability—is the missing ingredient right now.
If you’d like me to walk you through what this means for your specific situation, let’s chat.
You can directly book a time with me here: Book a Call
