Spring has finally arrivedānot just in your garden, but potentially in the real estate market, too.
According to the April 2025 data from Edge Realty Analytics, the chill that froze housing activity over the winter might just be starting to thaw. We're not saying it's t-shirt weather for the market yet, but there are signs the furnace may finally be turning off.
Letās break it down market-by-market, and more importantly, explore what it could mean for you.
š The Macro View: Has the Market Found Its Bottom?
April gave us the first solid sign that Canadian home sales likely bottomed in Q1 2025. If thatās the case, we're entering a new phase: early recovery.
TRREB reported a 1.8% increase in seasonally adjusted sales over March.
Affordability is improvingānot fantastic, but improving.
Monthly payments on a typical Canadian home are now ~$2,600āthe lowest since May 2022.
A possible rate cut in June could further reduce payments to 2022 levels.
Consumer confidence is rising. Nanos Research shows early signs of a V-shaped sentiment recovery.
Bottom Line: People are still cautious, but sentiment and affordability trends are shifting in the right direction. Thatās usually how comebacks begin.
šļø Toronto: Sales Nudge Up, But Inventory Surges
Toronto had a slight sales bounce (+1.8%), but letās not throw a parade just yet.
Sales are still down 21% y/y, and condo sales in the 416 are off nearly 30%.
Inventory is ballooning, hitting a 20-year high:
Over 27,000 active listings in April.
Months of inventory: nearly 5 (Months) across all housing types, 7 (Months) for condosāthe highest since the early 2000s.
Average home prices dipped by 1.6% (seasonally adjusted).
Rental listings hit record highs (16,420), with average condo rents down 3.1% y/y.
Whatās happening?
Think of it like a bathtub: water (supply) is pouring in faster than it can drain (sales). Until demand turns the faucet, prices and rents remain under pressure.
Still, thereās a silver lining: falling prices and rates are making condo investing less painful. Cash flows are finally turning slightly positive againāat least on paper.
š If youāre a buyer or investor sitting on the sidelines, this is your market to watch. Letās talk about strategy before others catch on.
š§ļø Vancouver: Price Drops and Rising Inventory
Vancouver is in a funk.
Sales dropped 4% in Aprilāfifth month in a row.
Down 24% compared to April 2024.
Inventory is rising fast, especially in the condo segment.
Months of inventory hit 7.5, with single-family homes seeing a sharp build-up.
Prices fell another 1.5%āthe fourth straight month of decline.
Despite this, construction is slowing. That's important because while today's supply may look scary, tomorrow's shortage is being baked in.
Weāre likely in the middle of a āW-shapedā marketāexpect more wobbles before recovery solidifies.
For savvy buyers? There could be a window here. Vancouver doesnāt stay down for long.
š ļø Edmonton: Quiet Strengthāand a Surprising Trend
Of the major markets, Edmonton might be the sleeper hit of 2025.
Sales dipped slightly (-2%), butā¦
Edmonton is now outselling Calgaryāa first in recent history!
Inventory remains at decade lows.
Prices are still rising, up double digits from last year.
Construction activity is flat, but supply remains tight.
Hereās the wild card: Edmonton's market is relatively underbuilt compared to demand. If trends continue, itās one of the few metros with potential for further upside.
For investors, this could be the ābuy lowā city of the yearāif you know where to look.
š Construction Collapse: The Next Supply Crisis Is Brewing
Hereās whatās quietly happening in the background:
New condo starts in the GTA have collapsed by 70% y/y.
Only 160 units sold in March 2025āvs 3,500 in 2021.
Dwellings under construction are falling fast in both Toronto and Vancouver.
This matters a lot because it signals a future supply crunch, particularly for condos.
Todayās oversupply = tomorrowās shortage. Donāt miss the long-term view while focused on short-term noise.
š¬ So, Where Does That Leave You?
The April 2025 data paints a complex picture, but hereās the takeaway:
Weāre likely past the bottom in many markets.
Supply is high now, but construction is crashing.
Affordability is improving slowly, and confidence is rebuilding.
Opportunities are formingābut not where most are looking.
Whether you're thinking of buying, refinancing, investing, or selling, the market rewards timing and planning more than ever.
š Letās schedule a call and discuss what all this means for you. No guessworkājust a smart plan tailored to your goals.
